Public transit systems in North America are facing numerous challenges, including recovering ridership, staffing shortages, and financial shortfalls. Despite these hurdles, the future of public transportation is far from bleak. In fact, there are numerous opportunities for forward-thinking transit agencies and operators to innovate and thrive.
We brings together professionals and experts in public transportation to identify critical trends and explore the most effective solutions, both in North America and globally. Through our committees and working groups, we gain insight into what drives and challenges the industry. Here are the top 10 trends that are shaping the future of North American public transit in 2024!
1. Ridership Recovery
Public transport across North America is making a notable comeback. By the end of 2023, ridership data revealed that U.S. passenger volumes had reached 79% of pre-pandemic numbers, thanks to a significant 16% year-over-year increase in trips. Looking ahead, transit operators and agencies should anticipate continued growth in demand.
However, some cities are still struggling to regain momentum. Places like Detroit, Scranton, Raleigh, Tampa, and Philadelphia have seen less than half of their previous ridership return. Even San Francisco remains at only 51% of 2019 levels, largely due to remote work keeping many commuters out of offices.
On the other hand, some cities have taken innovative approaches to boost ridership. In Vancouver, Canada, TransLink’s “Ride and Shine” marketing campaign focused on leisure travel, resulting in a 10% increase in passengers. By April 2024, TransLink proudly announced that ridership had fully recovered.
2. Major Events Drive Funding and Increase Public Transport Visibility
North America is no stranger to hosting large-scale events, but two of the most prestigious global tournaments are on the horizon. The 2026 FIFA World Cup will take place in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, and Los Angeles is set to host the Olympics in 2028.
These massive events bring substantial economic benefits to host cities, but managing the influx of visitors requires efficient transportation solutions. Public transit plays a crucial role in ensuring smooth travel to and from venues. For example, during the recent FIFA World Cup in Qatar, Doha’s public transport system significantly enhanced the overall event experience.
Hosting such events necessitates investments in infrastructure, technology, and workforce. While these upgrades involve upfront costs, the improvements to public transportation provide long-term advantages for both residents and the city, well beyond the conclusion of the events.
3. Autonomous Vehicles and Robotaxis Gaining Traction
Autonomous robotaxis are no longer a futuristic concept—they’re actively transporting passengers today. In cities like Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, with testing also underway in Atlanta, around 250 robotaxis are already operating. These self-driving vehicles have collectively covered millions of miles, all without a safety driver on board.
For this technology to gain widespread acceptance, close collaboration between legislative bodies and transit agencies will be essential. Establishing clear regulations and building public trust will be key to ensuring the successful integration of autonomous vehicles into everyday transport systems.
4. Workforce Challenges: A Call to Hire
Workforce shortages are impacting 96% of American transit agencies, forcing many cities to consider reducing transportation services. To prevent this, the sector must focus on attracting and retaining talent. It’s important to highlight that public transportation offers well-paying, stable, and local jobs, supporting nearly half a million workers across the U.S.—roughly equivalent to the population of cities like Miami or Minneapolis.
In addition to recruitment efforts, fostering a better work-life balance and enhancing job satisfaction will be critical for building a strong, resilient workforce in the transit sector.
5. Innovative Solutions Like Congestion Pricing
New York City is on the verge of becoming the first North American city to implement a congestion charge. This plan would require vehicles entering downtown and midtown Manhattan to pay a fee of approximately $15.
Such a policy would not only help alleviate traffic congestion but also generate significant revenue. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) estimates that the congestion charge could bring in $1 billion annually, which would be used to improve infrastructure and potentially expand the subway system.
To ensure the plan remains equitable, the MTA aims to offer discounts or exemptions for low-income individuals, people with disabilities, emergency vehicles, school buses, and other special categories, ensuring mobility remains accessible for all.
6. BRT is Transforming Rapid Transit
Of the 61 public transit projects slated for funding by the U.S. Federal Transit Administration, 40 are dedicated to Bus Rapid Transit (BRT). Unlike rail systems, which require substantial investments in new infrastructure, BRT leverages North America’s existing road networks.
With features like dedicated lanes, level boarding, priority at traffic signals, and the right-of-way, BRT systems offer a fast, efficient alternative to the traditional image of buses stuck in traffic. A standout example of BRT in North America is Richmond, Virginia. Richmond’s Pulse BRT has delivered impressive results.
By prioritizing efficient public transportation, Richmond has seen its ridership exceed pre-pandemic levels by 5%, making it one of only ten major U.S. metro areas to fully recover ridership post-2019.
7. Hydrogen vs. Electric Buses: Which is Better?
In North America, the debate continues over whether hydrogen or battery electric buses are the future of public transit. Both technologies have distinct advantages, and adopting either will require significant investment, making current decisions critical for long-term outcomes.
Hydrogen buses offer several benefits:
- Greater range
- Weigh about five tons less than electric buses
- Can be refueled in under 15 minutes, compared to up to eight hours for electric buses
- Perform better in hilly terrain and extreme temperatures
On the other hand, electric buses provide:
- Simpler energy storage
- Lower operational and maintenance costs
- Fewer safety concerns related to flammability
- Access to clean energy from widely available sources
There’s no definitive answer as to which is best. Each transit agency and operator will need to determine which technology—or a combination of both—best aligns with their specific needs and goals.
8. The Evolution of Micromobility: Here to Stay but Evolving
In 2023, Lime experienced a surge in e-scooter trips, reaching record numbers. Meanwhile, Bird acquired Spin, and TIER took over Dott in Europe, signaling significant changes in the micromobility market. This transformation was particularly evident in Bird’s journey; after declaring bankruptcy in December 2023, the company made a remarkable recovery by April 2024. Bird now emphasizes that successful partnerships with local governments will be crucial for their future.
By adopting a collaborative urban planning approach, micromobility providers can align their objectives with municipal authorities. This synergy will help ensure that these services are integrated into the broader transportation network, facilitating a shift away from car dependency while still promoting walking and cycling as viable options.
9. Merging Public and Private Investment in Transit
Public funding is essential for the operation of public transport systems, but it cannot cover all expenses on its own. This is where public-private partnerships (PPPs) become crucial. These collaborations can foster innovation and promote sustainability. For instance, the U.S. federal government has allocated $1.2 billion to a PPP aimed at establishing a clean hydrogen hub for Santa Cruz Metro.
Canada is a strong proponent of PPPs, boasting 291 active partnerships, which positions it as a leader in this area globally. Canadian authorities are also exploring various types of PPPs to enhance their effectiveness, such as alliance and progressive design-build contracts. These models encourage early engagement from private sector partners, driving innovation and sharing some of the associated risks.
Despite the importance of private investment, public funding remains the foundation of transit financing. It provides the necessary resources to keep operations running and offers the stability that attracts private investors.
10. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Service Quality
Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the landscape of public transit for the better. Its ability to detect potential problems before they escalate is unmatched by human capabilities.
Cities are increasingly investigating how AI can enhance service delivery and maintenance, with promising outcomes. A four-month pilot program involving an AI maintenance tool for buses, conducted across three transit agencies in the U.S. and Canada, revealed that the tool reduced labor hours by up to 50%. This efficiency allows maintenance teams to more effectively identify, address, and prioritize issues.
Closing word
In conclusion, the landscape of public transportation in North America is evolving rapidly in 2024, marked by both challenges and exciting opportunities. As transit agencies work to recover ridership, address workforce shortages, and secure funding, they are also embracing innovative technologies and strategies.
From the implementation of autonomous vehicles and the exploration of sustainable bus options to the integration of micromobility solutions, the future is bright for public transit. The emphasis on public-private partnerships and the use of artificial intelligence further underscore a commitment to improving service and efficiency. By staying adaptable and forward-thinking, transit authorities can create robust, inclusive systems that meet the diverse needs of their communities and contribute to a more sustainable urban mobility landscape.